What the sleep study actually found

Shape: Why it is hard
Plates: lede · stat · intervals · note
Why: The failure of an explainer is overclaiming on the reader's behalf. `stat` for the headline number, then `intervals` immediately — a confidence interval described in prose is a sentence people skip, and drawn it is the whole argument about how much to believe. The warning is not decoration: it is the difference between explaining a paper and laundering it.

The headline said an extra hour of sleep cuts your risk by a fifth. The paper says something narrower, and more useful.

19%

Lower risk, in the group who slept an hour longer

Across 4,200 people, followed for six years

How sure, actually

Each bar is one plausible answer given the data. The effect is real — none of them reach zero — but 'a fifth' is the middle of a wide range, not the finding.

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